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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 12

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.98 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP