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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Seattle Seahawks 19

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to SEA 1, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +1.83 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 51, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model