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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 84

Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 19

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to SF 39, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.69 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 42, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP