Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 83

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Detroit Lions 0

(14:54) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to DET 39, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.26 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 83, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model