Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

(6:08) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to JAX 24, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.60 EP
59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model