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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

LAC
50.7%
JAX
49.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): -0.070 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24
–
JAX 22
Projected margin: LAC by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

LAC

Bobby Hart T Questionable Knee
Elijah Molden S Questionable Knee
Quentin Johnston WR Questionable Shin
Scott Matlock FB Questionable Chest
Tarheeb Still CB Questionable Knee

JAX

Jourdan Lewis CB Out Neck
Hunter Long TE Out Hip
Anton Harrison T Out Knee
Brenton Strange TE Out Hip
Brian Thomas Jr. WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 6
–
JAX 35

Prediction missed by 31 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:35 FG LAC (3:35) 11-C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – JAX 0
  • Q1 00:04 TD JAX (:04) 55-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 33-B.Tuten up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – JAX 6
  • Q2 08:22 FG LAC (8:22) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 6 – JAX 7
  • Q2 03:42 TD JAX (3:42) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-T.Etienne. 1-T.Etienne left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – JAX 13
  • Q3 07:53 TD JAX (7:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – JAX 20
  • Q4 11:43 TD JAX (11:43) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 17-T.Patrick for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – JAX 27
  • Q4 11:11 TD JAX (11:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – JAX 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (13:37) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to JAX 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 52%

    (8:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Meyers.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 89%

    (3:35) 11-C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:04) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to JAX 33, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 66%

    (6:32) 33-B.Tuten right end to LAC 32 for 4 yards (52-K.Mack).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 50%

    (:29) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to JAX 1, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:08) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to JAX 24, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:31) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short right to 38-T.Williams to LAC 37 for no gain (26-An.Johnson).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 78%

    (8:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at LAC 34 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), touched at LAC 37, RECOVERED by LAC-48-B.Dupree at JAX 49. 48-B.Dupree to JAX 47 for 2 yards (76-E.Cleveland). FUMBLES (76-E.Cleveland), ball out of bounds at JAX 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 80-Q.Morris (43-T.Dye).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 75%

    (6:08) (No Huddle) 5-T.Lance up the middle to JAX 31 for 1 yard (47-D.Gardeck; 95-B.Green).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 31
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 77%

    (5:12) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance sacked at JAX 38 for -7 yards (91-A.Armstead).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 23%

    (2:51) 55-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 36-L.Allen up the middle to LAC 41 for 12 yards (92-J.Eboigbe). PENALTY on LAC-53-D.Phillips, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 41.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 93%

    (:31) 55-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 36-L.Allen up the middle to LAC 11 for 7 yards (40-K.Williamson).