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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 42

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(:29) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to JAX 1, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.71 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP