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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to JAX 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.22 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP