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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Jacksonville Jaguars
4th & 3 at the 41
Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0
What Actually Happened
(8:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Meyers.
The Three Options
GO
+1.05 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.68 EP
- 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.69 EP
KICK
-0.11 EP
- 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
- 48% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT
+0.21 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
