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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 53

Jacksonville Jaguars 35 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 55-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 36-L.Allen up the middle to LAC 41 for 12 yards (92-J.Eboigbe). PENALTY on LAC-53-D.Phillips, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 41.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.83 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model