Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 35

(10:31) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short right to 38-T.Williams to LAC 37 for no gain (26-An.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.43 EP
60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 63, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP