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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Jacksonville Jaguars
4th & 1 at the 36
Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 6
What Actually Happened
(6:32) 33-B.Tuten right end to LAC 32 for 4 yards (52-K.Mack).
The Three Options
GO
+2.06 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.80 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.67 EP
KICK
+0.27 EP
- 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
- 34% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT
-0.20 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
