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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 23

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 11-C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.40 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP