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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 32

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 35

What Actually Happened

(6:08) (No Huddle) 5-T.Lance up the middle to JAX 31 for 1 yard (47-D.Gardeck; 95-B.Green).

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.48 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model