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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 35 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(8:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at LAC 34 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), touched at LAC 37, RECOVERED by LAC-48-B.Dupree at JAX 49. 48-B.Dupree to JAX 47 for 2 yards (76-E.Cleveland). FUMBLES (76-E.Cleveland), ball out of bounds at JAX 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 80-Q.Morris (43-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.19 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model