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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 13

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.66 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 13, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model