4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 5

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(5:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.72 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 5, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model