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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to CHI 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.09 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 52, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP