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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(1:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 3-J.Addison to 50 for 5 yards (24-N.McCloud) [49-T.Edmunds].

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.86 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -1.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model