Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at KC 21 for 70 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace). PENALTY on KC-38-K.Knowles, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.43 EP
64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model