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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 55

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to TEN 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 17-C.Dike MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 23, recovered by TEN-33-C.Gray at TEN 21. TEN-17-C.Dike was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.11 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP