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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 5

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 33-T.Loop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.52 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 5, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP