BAL @ CLE — 4th & Data

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Cleveland Browns

2-8 HC Kevin Stefanski

Sunday 2025-11-16 · 16:25 ET FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

BAL

66.8%

CLE

33.2%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

CLE offense: -0.186 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
QB edge to BAL: Dillon Gabriel (CLE) -0.227 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.295 EPA/dropback
CLE defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
Wind 20 mph

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Predicted Final Score

BAL 22 15–29

–

CLE 17 10–24

Projected margin: BAL by 5 Projected total: 39

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 11

BAL

Marlon Humphrey CB Out Finger

Justice Hill RB Out Toe

Rashod Bateman WR Out Ankle

Jay Higgins LB Out Knee

Mike Green LB Questionable Ankle

CLE

Alex Wright DE Out Quadricep

Maliek Collins DT Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 23

–

CLE 16

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 04:59 FG BAL (4:59) 33-T.Loop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 3 – CLE 0
Q1 00:04 FG CLE (:04) 25-A.Szmyt 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 3 – CLE 3
Q2 08:47 FG CLE (8:47) 25-A.Szmyt 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 3 – CLE 6
Q2 07:53 TD CLE (7:53) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 34-K.Mitchell INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Bush at BAL 23. 30-D.Bush for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 3 – CLE 12
Q2 04:22 TD BAL (4:22) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – CLE 13
Q2 01:02 FG CLE (1:02) 25-A.Szmyt 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 10 – CLE 16
Q4 14:09 FG BAL (14:09) 33-T.Loop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 13 – CLE 16
Q4 05:03 FG BAL (5:03) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 16 – CLE 16
Q4 02:39 TD BAL (2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 22 – CLE 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(12:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to BAL 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to BAL 21 for 19 yards (31-D.McMillon; 41-C.Edmonds).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 7

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

(4:59) 33-T.Loop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

(:04) 25-A.Szmyt 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 21%

(12:51) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(10:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-9-G.Delpit at BAL 6.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

(8:47) 25-A.Szmyt 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 78%

(1:02) 25-A.Szmyt 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 60%

(:35) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 11 for 5 yards (39-K.Jackson).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(12:54) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-N.Moore. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 25 for 13 yards (54-C.Martin).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 BAL 4th & 14 at the 43

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 38%

(5:13) 11-J.Stout punts 26 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CLE 4th & 20 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24%

(1:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to BAL 25, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to BAL 32 for 7 yards (50-R.Sunahara).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

(14:09) 33-T.Loop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 40

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 46%

(11:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. Cleveland challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
See the full breakdown →
Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 82%

(5:03) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 35 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 61%

(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 25 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%

(1:02) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Njoku (0-R.Smith) [41-D.Jones].
See the full breakdown →

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