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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 16 – Baltimore Ravens 23

What Actually Happened

(1:02) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Njoku (0-R.Smith) [41-D.Jones].

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.22 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP