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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-9-G.Delpit at BAL 6.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.01 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model