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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-N.Moore. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 25 for 13 yards (54-C.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.33 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model