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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 43

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 11-J.Stout punts 26 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.06 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model