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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 26

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.43 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model