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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.80 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -2.05 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model