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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 28

Cleveland Browns 13 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 25-A.Szmyt 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.35 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model