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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 16 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. Cleveland challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.51 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP