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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 36

Denver Broncos 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.45 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model