4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
Thursday 2025-11-13 · 20:15 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 12.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYJ
23.0%
NE
77.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.140 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): +0.193 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE defense: -0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 18
–
NE 27
Projected margin: NE by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NYJ

Garrett Wilson WR Out Knee
Azareye'h Thomas CB Out Concussion
Harrison Phillips DT Questionable Foot
Khalil Herbert RB Questionable Groin
Xavier Newman-Johnson G Questionable Ankle
Will McDonald IV DE Questionable Quadricep
Braiden McGregor DE Questionable Shoulder

NE

Austin Hooper TE Out Concussion
Christian Elliss LB Out Hip
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Out Toe
Kayshon Boutte WR Out Hamstring
Terrell Jennings RB Questionable Knee
Joshua Farmer DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 14
–
NE 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:01 TD NYJ (7:01) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – NE 0
  • Q2 14:23 TD NE (14:23) 32-T.Henderson left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – NE 6
  • Q2 07:58 TD NE (7:58) 77-B.Brown reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – NE 13
  • Q3 07:51 TD NE (7:51) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 32-T.Henderson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – NE 20
  • Q3 03:17 TD NYJ (3:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass deep left to 3-J.Metchie for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – NE 21
  • Q4 12:11 FG NE (12:11) 36-A.Borregales 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NYJ 14 – NE 24
  • Q4 06:38 FG NE (6:38) 36-A.Borregales 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NYJ 14 – NE 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 60%

    (3:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to NYJ 31 for 7 yards (21-B.Stephens).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (12:52) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to NE 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:14) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to NE 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:31) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to NYJ 14, Center-47-J.Ashby. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 31 for 17 yards (41-B.Schooler). PENALTY on NYJ-35-D.Clark, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NYJ 14.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (1:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to NE 41, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:17) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 13, Center-47-J.Ashby. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 32 for 19 yards (91-E.Ponder).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 13 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 85%

    (12:11) 36-A.Borregales 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:17) 14-A.McNamara punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 47 yards to NYJ 16, Center-47-J.Ashby. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 15 for -1 yards (22-C.Woods).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (6:38) 36-A.Borregales 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 89-J.Ruckert (24-D.Pettus).