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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 38

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to NYJ 31 for 7 yards (21-B.Stephens).

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.82 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model