Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 64

New York Jets 14 – New England Patriots 24

(9:17) 14-A.McNamara punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.53 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model