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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 63

New England Patriots 14 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 13, Center-47-J.Ashby. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 32 for 19 yards (91-E.Ponder).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.54 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 63, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model