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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 56

New York Jets 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to NE 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.30 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model