Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 70

New England Patriots 14 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to NYJ 14, Center-47-J.Ashby. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 31 for 17 yards (41-B.Schooler). PENALTY on NYJ-35-D.Clark, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NYJ 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.01 EP
58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model