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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 15

New York Jets 14 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 89-J.Ruckert (24-D.Pettus).

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.43 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model