Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 63

New England Patriots 24 – New York Jets 14

(7:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 47 yards to NYJ 16, Center-47-J.Ashby. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 15 for -1 yards (22-C.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.52 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model