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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 8

Washington Commanders 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 16-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 8, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP