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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 20 at the 27

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.66 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model