Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 3-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 32 for 8 yards (21-M.Robinson). PENALTY on HOU-11-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model