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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 20 for 5 yards (13-T.Felton; 37-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model