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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 39

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to BUF 5, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.65 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP