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6-4 HC Todd Bowles
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Buffalo Bills

7-3 HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 13:00 ET New Era Field, Orchard Park US 💨 Windy Spread 6.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

TB
40.1%
BUF
59.9%
💨 Windy

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Wind 20 mph
  • TB offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.198 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.163 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TB 21 14–28
–
BUF 25 18–32
Projected margin: BUF by 4 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 11

TB

Haason Reddick LB Out Ankle
Chris Godwin Jr. WR Out Fibula
Ben Bredeson G Out Hamstring
Markees Watts LB Out Hand
Bucky Irving RB Out Shoulder

BUF

Phidarian Mathis DT Out Shoulder
Dalton Kincaid TE Out Hamstring
Shaq Thompson LB Questionable Hamstring
Taron Johnson CB Questionable Groin
Cam Lewis CB Questionable Calf
T.J. Sanders DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 32
–
BUF 44

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:57 FG TB (8:57) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 3 – BUF 0
  • Q1 04:11 TD BUF (4:11) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – BUF 6
  • Q2 12:04 TD TB (12:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – BUF 7
  • Q2 09:01 TD BUF (9:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-T.Shavers for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 10 – BUF 13
  • Q2 05:46 TD TB (5:46) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker right end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – BUF 14
  • Q2 00:45 TD BUF (:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – BUF 20
  • Q2 00:01 FG TB (:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 20 – BUF 21
  • Q3 07:31 TD TB (7:31) 44-S.Tucker right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 26 – BUF 21
  • Q3 05:05 FG BUF (5:05) 15-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. TB 26 – BUF 24
  • Q3 03:53 TD BUF (3:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 4-J.Cook for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 26 – BUF 30
  • Q4 13:45 TD TB (13:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 44-S.Tucker for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 32 – BUF 31
  • Q4 09:10 TD BUF (9:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 32 – BUF 37
  • Q4 02:42 TD BUF (2:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 32 – BUF 43

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 49%

    (10:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to BUF 5, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (8:57) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 74%

    (7:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis to TB 23 for 7 yards (27-Z.McCollum).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (12:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 38%

    (4:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 8-S.Dennis (23-T.Smith) at TB 32. 8-S.Dennis to TB 32 for no gain (83-K.Latu). TB-23-T.Smith was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 38%

    (1:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to BUF 8, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:58) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to TB 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (11:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to BUF 41, Center-86-E.Deckers. 16-M.Hardman to BUF 41 for no gain (32-J.Hayes). FUMBLES (32-J.Hayes), RECOVERED by TB-81-R.Miller at BUF 43.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 89%

    (5:05) 15-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to BUF 15, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-86-E.Deckers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 18%

    (:50) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 32 yards to TB 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-42-D.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →