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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to BUF 8, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.07 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP