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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 61

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32 – Buffalo Bills 37

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to BUF 15, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-86-E.Deckers.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.98 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP