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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 87

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to BUF 41, Center-86-E.Deckers. 16-M.Hardman to BUF 41 for no gain (32-J.Hayes). FUMBLES (32-J.Hayes), RECOVERED by TB-81-R.Miller at BUF 43.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.17 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 87, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 45, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP