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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis to TB 23 for 7 yards (27-Z.McCollum).

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.54 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT +0.84 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model